ITD Cementation: PAT growth of 41% & Revenue growth of 21% in 9M-25 at a PE of 26
Revenue growth of 20% in FY25 & FY26. FY27 revenue growth of 15%. EBITDA margin stable. Order book ~2X of FY25 expected revenue. Acquisition by Adani Group to be a positive for the business
One of the leading Engineering and Construction Companies undertaking Heavy Civil, Infrastructure and EPC business
Expertise in Maritime Structures, Mass Rapid Transit Systems, Airports, Hydro-Electric Power, Tunnels, Dams & Irrigation, Highways, Bridges & Flyovers, Industrial Structures and Buildings, Foundation & Specialist Engineering
2. FY20-24: PAT CAGR of 58% & Revenue CAGR of 28%
3. Strong FY24: PAT up 120% & Revenue up 52%
4. Tepid Q3-25: PAT up 11% & Revenue up 11%
5. Strong 9M-25: PAT up 41% & Revenue up 21%
6. Business metrics: Improving return ratios
8. Outlook: 20%revenue growth in FY25
i. 20% top-line growth in FY25
One can expect a min Rs 9,260 cr revenue in FY25, given a 20% growth expectation. 9M-25 performance indicates that its in-line to deliver on the 20% revenue growth promise.
FY25: Yes. Already this year, we will be close to INR10,000 crores.
FY25 & FY26: '25, '26 you can find, as I have mentioned before also, around 20% plus-minus we should be.
FY27: It will slightly taper down. Once it becomes big, so 20% next year, maybe 15% in that range.
ii. EBITDA Margin stable
EBITDA Margin stable at around 10%
iii. Strong order-book: 2X+ FY25 expected revenue
Order book is nearly double the Rs 9,260 cr revenue expected in FY25. However, a flat order book needs to be watched very closely. The implications of an order book not growing would be seen in the business results of FY-26
9. PAT growth of 41% & Revenue growth of 21% in 9M-25 at a PE of 26
10. Hold?
If I hold the stock then one may continue holding on to ITDCEM
The investment thesis based on a strong order book and strong execution has not changed after a strong FY24 and 9M-25.
Business execution is strong as exhibited from Q3-25 performance despite challenges and least Rs 200 crores revenue loss in Q3-25
Work in Bangladesh was affected due to government restrictions, leading to a Rs 200 cr impact on revenue in Q3-25.
Revenue Loss in Q3-25: So the revenue, what was expected during the last quarter from Bangladesh, which was a big chunk, which we could not get. Otherwise, our revenue top line would have been at least INR200 crores more
The project is expected to contribute ₹1,500 crores to the order book.
Mobilization has been completed and work is progressing, but there will be a revenue shortfall in Q4-25 due to delays.
Flat order book needs to be watched for. If order book does not start growing it would have implications on FY26. One can watch it on a quarter by quarter basis for another 1-2 quarters before taking any decision.
FY25 order inflow: Yes, I think around that INR9,000 crores.
FY26 order inflow: FY '26, I cannot give you clarity, but it should be around INR12,000 crores, INR13,000 crores order we should get next year.
ITDCEM can scale up execution capacity by FY26 with limited capex provides a positive outlook for growth
Execution Capacity: Currently can handle ₹10,000 crores per year; could scale up to ₹13,000-14,000 crores.
Acquisition by the Adani group will be a positive for ITDCEM
In terms of Adani, I mean we have to do much more work than what we have been doing so far, including whatever work we are doing, apart from Adani, that will remain, that will grow. And maybe we'll be getting some more jobs from Adani. So that is a positive side. We have to enhance our capability. That much I can say at this moment.
11. Buy?
If I am looking to enter ITDCEM then
ITDCEM has delivered PAT growth of 41% & Revenue growth of 21% in 9M-25 at a PE of 26 which makes the valuations look reasonable from the short term .
Revenue growth of 20% in FY25 & FY26 with stable margins at a PE of 26 makes the valuations look fairly priced in the medium term.
Revenue growth of about 15% in FY27 with stable margins at a PE of 26 makes the valuations look fairly priced in the longer term
Execution against the FY25 guidance would drive ITDCEM in the short term. Over the long term order intake and build up of the order book would create opportunity in ITDCEM and hence the order inflow in FY25 & FY26 would be critical.
Opportunities due to new promoter: So the new promoter, they have got a huge internal planning to invest a lot of money to have green energy, to have many, many other things. So data centers and roads and whatnot. So those require infrastructure, I mean, those require a lot of construction and energy activity. So the huge opportunities are lying in front of us to do a lot of work with our Adani Group.
Our new promoter will like to do us much more work. So there could be some inorganic growth as well.
