1. Manufacturing of Casting Gold Jewelry
skygold.co.in | NSE: SKYGOLD
2. FY22–26: PAT CAGR of 102% & Revenue CAGR of 68%
3. FY26: PAT up 228% & Revenue up 103% YoY
4. Q1 FY27: PAT up 141% & Revenue up 78% YoY
PAT up 16% & Revenue up 5% QoQ
Overall, I can say that we have grown by 7% to 9% in the volumes in this quarter.
5. Business Metrics: Strong Return Ratios
ROCE guidance of 27%+ by FY30
6. Outlook: PAT CAGR of 35% for FY26-30
6.1 Guidance — Sky Gold & Diamonds
FY27 Guidance:
FY27 Revenue projected at ~8,100 crore
EBITDA margin expected in the range of ~7.0-7.5%
PAT margin guided at 4.5% - 4.75%
Focus on capital efficiency, advance gold and margin expansion
Key Growth Levers
Portfolio strengthened through strategic acquisitions, expanding TAM and product depth
Manufacturing footprint expanded to 1,35,000 sq. ft.
Opening of Dubai Office
FY30 Guidance
Revenue expected to be ~₹18,000 -19,000 crore
PAT margin projected to be ~5.25%+, aggregating to ₹ 945 crores
ROCE of 27% +
CFO/PAT of ~20% +
Net debt positive, driven by improvements in the working capital cycle
Advance gold expected to contribute ~30% of volumes by FY30, is 11.5% in FY26
Key Growth Levers
Exports mix to improve
Product mix upgraded with higher design complexity and value-added jewellery, supporting differentiation and margin expansion
Expansion into emerging categories such as 18kt, 9kt, and diamond-studded jewellery
Business Quality by FY30
Balanced domestic and export revenue mix
Improving ROCE, supported by margin expansion and stronger asset turns
Strong corporate governance, consistent positive operating cash flows, and a resilient balance sheet
Revenue Guidance
Targeting a sustainable annual revenue growth of 30% to 35%.
A Shift in Focus: Management explicitly stated they wish to avoid specific long-term revenue guidance going forward because gold price volatility, which is beyond their control, can make top-line figures a “misnomer”. They prioritize “cash in the bank” over “vanity” top-line numbers.
Volume Guidance
Moving away from specific volume targets for the same volatility reasons as revenue
Of the projected 30-35% revenue growth, management expects 27% to 28% to come directly from volume increases.
Aggressively scaling its “advanced gold” business (where they only record job fees as revenue).
Target of reaching 30% by FY30.
Margin Guidance
PAT Margin Targets:
Conservative 5.25% PAT margin by FY30 — 75 bps expansion
Gross Margin Drivers:
Expect expansion of 60 to 90 basis points driven by a better mix of advanced gold and studded jewelry.
6.2 Q1 FY27 Performance vs FY27 Guidance
Ahead of FY27 Revenue Guidance
confident in our ability to deliver sustainable growth while continuing to improve the quality and profitability of our business.
We remain firmly on track to achieve our aspiration of INR8,100 crores by FY27 and INR18,000 crores to INR19,000 crores by FY30.
we have achieved 17% sales on the Advance Gold model, significantly ahead of our expectation of 15% of the Advance Gold model for FY27.
Our cash flows from operations turned positive at close to INR30 crores in Q1 FY27 compared to negative operating cash flows till the end of '26.
7. Valuation Analysis
7.1 Valuation Snapshot — Sky Gold
Current Market Price= ₹802.1
Market Cap = ₹12,422.4 Cr
Fully priced on a FY27 basis with 33× P/E and 13× EV/EBIDTA for a stock promising 35% CAGR for FY26-30
Opportunity to re-rate to to a 25×+ PE based on FY30 EPS.
Opportunity to ~2× from current levels
Sky Gold & Diamonds appears cheap on FY30 metrics — with re-rating potential as it delivers on FY30 guidance
8.2 Opportunity at Current Valuation
Possibility that SKYGOLD will beat FY27 Guidance
consolidated revenue for Q1 FY27 translates into a revenue run rate of approximately INR8,050 crores, which is already very close to our FY27 revenue guidance of INR8,100 crores.
So, we follow Q2 is better than Q1, and then Q3 is better. And again, the fourth quarter, March is better than that because Akshaya Tritiya's major delivery goes in March, and Akshaya Tritiya falls approximately between 20 April to 15 May.
Guidance for FY30 — Opprtunity to ~2× from current levels
Multi-year visibility: Guidance for FY30 (though far away) provides a longer term view on the stock
Attractive Forward Valuations: The valuations don’t seem to be discounting FY30 guidance
Potential for re-rating of multiples based on execution
Strong Tailwinds for growth for the next 4- 5 years
Currently, only 40% of the sector is organized and 60% of the sector is unorganized on the B2C side. While on the B2B side, only 20% is organized and 80% is unorganized. So, it gives a very big runway for any B2B design-led manufacturer to progress further. And we are in the sweet spot of that growth at this point of time, which we expect that it should continue at least for the next 4- 5 years going forward as well.
8.3 Risk at Current Valuation
Fully values on FY27 guidance
Sky Gold is fully valued on FY27 guidance — limited margin of safety
Valuations implicitly assuming that FY27 revenue guidance of ₹8100 Cr will be beaten
Margin of safety will start emerging from FY28 as FY27 guidance is delivered
FY30 target is ambitious
Strong upside case, but it depends on multiple things going right at once: exports, advance gold, value-added mix, diamond/studded jewellery, unorganized-market expansion, working-capital discipline, and no major gold-price or credit-cycle shock.
Last coverage of SKYGOLD
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